How do you differentiate between a true trend reversal and a mere retracement?

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Prompt Starters

1. Analyze this chart and give a prediction about future price
2. How do you differentiate between a true trend reversal and a mere retracement?
3. How do you use historical data to validate the strength of a pattern you've recognized?
4. What makes you decide to issue a buy or sell signal based on a chart pattern?